Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
